Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox
نویسندگان
چکیده
This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon--the reversal paradox--depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results.
منابع مشابه
The role of causal reasoning in understanding Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and the suppression effect: covariate selection in the analysis of observational studies
Tu et al present an analysis of the equivalence of three paradoxes, namely, Simpson's, Lord's, and the suppression phenomena. They conclude that all three simply reiterate the occurrence of a change in the association of any two variables when a third variable is statistically controlled for. This is not surprising because reversal or change in magnitude is common in conditional analysis. At th...
متن کاملHow Likely is Simpson’s Paradox?
What proportion of all 2× 2× 2 contingency tables exhibit Simpson’s Paradox? An approximate answer is obtained for large sample sizes and extended to 2×2×l tables. Several conditional probabilities of the occurrence of Simpson’s Paradox are also derived. Given that the observed cell frequencies satisfy a Simpson reversal, the posterior probability that the population parameters satisfy the same...
متن کاملSimpson's Paradox: An Anatomy
This report discusses the reversal e ect known as Simpson's paradox from a causaltheoretic viewpoint. It analyzes the reasons why the e ect has been (and still is) considered paradoxical and why its resolution has been so late in coming. The report is extracted from a forthcoming book Causality [Pearl, 2000], and assumes some familiarity with causal diagrams and the do( ) (or set( )) notation (...
متن کاملHow Likely is Simpson's Paradox in Path Models?
Simpson’s paradox is a phenomenon arising from multivariate statistical analyses that often leads to paradoxical conclusions; in the field of e-collaboration as well as many other fields where multivariate methods are employed. We derive a general inequality for the occurrence of Simpson’s paradox in path models with or without latent variables. The inequality is then used to estimate the proba...
متن کاملSimpson’s Paradox – A Survey of Past, Present and Future Research
Simpson’s paradox refers to the reversal of a statistical relationship between two variables in sub-populations when the sub-populations are combined and analyzed as a population. This article is intended to provide a broad survey of the past, present and future research surrounding the issue. Real data from a discrimination litigation case is examined to identify the occurrence of the paradox....
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Emerging Themes in Epidemiology
دوره 5 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2008